FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE from Kemper Consulting
October 9, 2025
Virginia's 2025 General Election Update: Part Two (Revised)
With Election Day on November 4 quickly approaching, Kemper Consulting is providing an overview of some of the key House of Delegates races in Virginia. Democrats control the House 51-48, with one vacancy. Democrats also control the Senate (21-19); Senators are not up for reelection until 2027. Early voting began on September 19 and continues through November 1.
Republicans currently hold all three statewide offices. Please see Kemper Consulting’s September 5th release for details about the statewide elections for governor, lieutenant governor, and attorney general. Since that update, there have been several unrelated national news stories concerning past actions of both the Republican candidate for lieutenant governor and the Democratic candidate for attorney general that have the potential to affect the outcomes of these races. However, as of today, no new public polls have been done to determine any impact.
Several factors could influence the outcomes of competitive House races, including federal workforce and funding reductions, as well as the federal government shutdown, now entering its second week.
The 2026 General Assembly is scheduled to convene on Wednesday, January 14, 2026, and the inauguration of the three statewide officers is scheduled for Saturday, January 17.
As always, please don't hesitate to reach out with any questions.
Key Races
House District 21, Part of Prince William County
Delegate Josh Thomas (D) was first elected to the House two years ago in a district Governor Glenn Youngkin won by more than three percentage points in 2021. Gregory Gorham (R) won a three-way June primary to earn the Republican nomination. Thomas is a former Marine, now an attorney, who is a member of the House Courts of Justice Committee and General Laws Committee. Thomas has a sizable financial advantage and Vice President Kamala Harris won the district last year by more than five percentage points.
House District 22, Part of Prince William County
Delegate Ian Lovejoy (R) was first elected to the House two years ago in a district Governor Glenn Youngkin won comfortably in 2021. Former Delegate Elizabeth Guzman is the Democratic nominee and has raised $400,000 more than Lovejoy. Lovejoy is a former member of the Manassas City Council, and serves on the House Counties, Cities and Towns Committee and Communications, Technology and Innovation Committee. Guzman served in the House from 2018 to 2024. In 2024, Vice President Harris won the district by one percentage point, and Senator Tim Kaine won it by two percentage points.
House District 30, Parts of Fauquier and Loudoun Counties
Delegate Geary Higgins (R) was first elected to the House two years ago in a district Governor Glenn Youngkin won comfortably in 2021. John McAuliff, a former legislative assistant to a delegate and a small business owner in the district, is the Democratic nominee. McAuliff has raised more money than Higgins, but they have an equal amount of cash on hand. Higgins is a former member of the Loudoun County School Board and Board of Supervisors. He serves on the House Counties, Cities and Towns Committee, and the Health and Human Services Committee. In 2024, President Donald Trump and the Republican candidate for the U.S. Senate, Hung Cao, won the district by close margins.
House District 41, Parts of Montgomery and Roanoke Counties
Delegate Chris Obenshain (R) was first elected to the House two years ago in a district Governor Glenn Youngkin won comfortably in 2021. Lily Franklin, a former legislative assistant to a delegate and a teacher, is the Democratic candidate. She lost to Obenshain in 2023 by less than one percentage point. Franklin has raised $400,000 more than Obenshain. Obenshain is an attorney and Army Reserve Officer. He serves on the House Courts of Justice Committee and the Public Safety Committee. In 2024, President Donald Trump and the Republican candidate for the U.S. Senate won the district. The latter won by 1.3 percentage points.
House District 57, Parts of Goochland and Henrico Counties
Delegate David Owen (R) was first elected to the House two years ago in a district Governor Glenn Youngkin won by less than three percentage points in 2021. May Nivar won a June primary to earn the Democratic nomination. Her parents immigrated to the United States when she was a child. An Altria executive, Nivar, has raised $200,000 more than Owen, but he has more cash on hand. Owen is a general contractor and former President of the Home Builders Association of Virginia. He serves on the House Public Safety Committee, and the Health and Human Services Committee. In 2024, Vice President Kamala Harris and Senator Tim Kaine won the district.
House District 64, Part of Stafford County
Delegate Paul Milde (R) was first elected to the House two years ago in a district Governor Glenn Youngkin won by almost 14 percentage points. Stacy Carroll is the Democratic nominee. She is a CPA, Army Reservist, and foster parent. Milde served on the Stafford County Board of Supervisors for more than ten years and is in the construction business. He serves on the House Privileges and Elections Committee and the Transportation Committee. Carroll and Milde have each raised about $300,000. In 2024, President Donald Trump won the district by two percentage points and Senator Tim Kaine won with the slimmest of margins.
House District 65, City of Fredericksburg and Parts of Spotsylvania and Stafford Counties
Delegate Joshua Cole (D) first won this House seat in 2019, but was defeated in 2021 before winning again two years ago. In 2021, he lost to then Delegate, now Senator Tara Durant (R). Sean Steinway is the Republican nominee. Cole is a pastor and member of the House Health and Human Services Committee and the General Laws Committee. Steinway is a small business owner and former Marine, police officer, sheriff deputy and USDEA official. Cole is ahead in fundraising, but Steinway is holding his own. Governor Youngkin won the district by three percentage points in 2021, while Vice President Kamala Harris and Senator Tim Kaine won it last year.
House District 66, Parts of Spotsylvania and Caroline Counties
Delegate Bobby Orrock (R) is the longest-serving member of the House of Delegates. First elected in 1989, Orrock, a former public school teacher, is a member and former chair of the Health and Human Services Committee. He also serves on the Finance Committee and the Agriculture, Chesapeake & Natural Resources Committee. Nicole Cole, a small business owner and nonprofit leader who serves on the Spotsylvania County School Board, is the Democratic candidate. Cole has outraised Orrock, but Orrock has more cash on hand. Youngkin won this district by 12 points in 2021. There were split results in 2024; President Trump won the district, as did Senator Tim Kaine.
House District 69, Part of the City of Newport News, and Parts of York, James City, and Gloucester Counties
Chad Green (R), an attorney and former member of the York County Board of Supervisors, was first elected in 2023. He serves on the Education Committee and the Privileges and Elections Committee. Mark Downey, a pediatrician, is the Democratic candidate. Downey has outraised Green. Independent candidate Valerie Beverley is also in the race, but she has raised very little money. Governor Youngkin won the 69th district handily in 2021. President Trump and the Republican candidate for the Senate won the district by slim margins in 2024.
House District 71, City of Williamsburg, Parts of New Kent and James City Counties
Delegate Amanda Batten (R), who serves as House Republican Caucus Chair, was first elected in 2019. Batten, a former legislative aide, is a member of the Courts of Justice, Education, and Public Safety Committees. Her Democratic opponent, Jessica Anderson, has significantly outraised Batten and has a slight edge in cash on hand. Batten and Anderson faced off in 2023, with Batten winning by a little over 600 votes. The district went for Governor Youngkin in 2021, before shifting to Harris and Kaine in 2024.
House District 73, part of Chesterfield County
Delegate Mark Earley, Jr. (R), an attorney, was first elected to the House in 2023. The son of former Virginia Attorney General Mark Earley, he serves on the Courts of Justice and Communications, Technology and Innovation Committee. Leslie Mehta, the Democratic candidate, is also an attorney and former Legal Director of the ACLU of Virginia. Mehta previously ran for Congress against Representative Rob Wittman. In her House of Delegates race, Mehta has raised significantly more than Earley, though Earley has more cash on hand. Governor Youngkin won this district by 15 points in 2023, but Vice President Kamala Harris and Senator Tim Kaine eked out wins in 2024.
House District 75, City of Hopewell, parts of Chesterfield County and Prince George County
The House District 75 race is a rematch between Republican Delegate Carrie Coyner and her Democratic challenger, Lindsey Dougherty. Coyner was first elected to the House in 2019. She is an attorney and serves on four committees: Appropriations, Education, General Laws, and Rules. Unlike many of the other competitive races, Coyner has outraised Dougherty and has more cash on hand. Dougherty is Senior Research Administrator at Virginia Commonwealth University. Prior to redistricting, she ran against Coyner in 2019, losing by about ten points. Governor Youngkin won the district by 8 points in 2021. Vice President Kamala Harris won it by six points and Senator Tim Kaine won by nine in 2024.
House District 82, City of Petersburg, Surry County, parts of Dinwiddie and Prince George Counties
House District 82 features another rematch between candidates who have run against each other before: Delegate Kim Taylor (R), first elected in 2021, faces Kimberly Pope Adams (D), who ran against Taylor in 2023, losing by less than 100 votes. Taylor is a small business owner who owns car repair shops. She serves on the Health and Human Services, Public Safety, and Communications, Technology and Innovation Committees. Adams, an auditor, has outraised Taylor and has more cash on hand. Governor Youngkin won this district in 2021, but Vice President Kamala Harris and Senator Tim Kaine won it in 2024.
House District 89, Parts of the cities of Chesapeake and Suffolk
Delegate Baxter Ennis (R), first elected to the House two years ago, announced his retirement last spring. Mike Lamonea is the Republican nominee and Karen “Kacey” Carnegie is the Democratic candidate. Lamonea is a member of the Chesapeake School Board and former career Homeland Security Investigation official. Carnegie is an attorney and community leader. Carnegie has raised $100,000 more than Lamonea but he currently has more cash on hand. Governor Glenn Youngkin handily won the district in 2021; Ennis won it in 2023 by less than two percentage points. Vice President Kamala Harris and Senator Tim Kaine won it in 2024.
House District 86, City of Poquoson, Parts of City of Hampton and York County
Delegate A.C. Cordoza (R) was first elected in 2021. A realtor and Air Force veteran, Cordoza serves on the House Courts of Justice Committee, Public Safety Committee, and Communications, Technology and Innovation Committee. His opponent, Virgil Thornton, Sr. (D), an executive coach and former electrical nuclear test technician, has outraised Cordoza and has more cash on hand. Youngkin won the district by nearly 10 points, while Vice President Harris and Senator Tim Kaine won it in 2024.
House District 97, Parts of the City of Virginia Beach
Delegate Michael Feggans (D) faces former Delegate Tim Anderson (R) in House District 97. Feggans, first elected in 2023, is a cybersecurity professional and Air Force veteran who serves on the House Labor and Commerce Committee, Public Safety Committee, and Transportation Committee. Anderson is an attorney and small business owner. He was elected to the House of Delegates in 2021, serving one term. Feggans has outraised Anderson and has more cash on hand. Governor Youngkin won this district by two points in 2021. Vice President Harris had an eight-point victory in 2024, and Senator Kaine won by nine points.
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Ross Grogg, Kemper Consulting, Inc.